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Investment firm Baird gave its initial thoughts for 2024, listing Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW), MongoDB (NASDAQ:MDB), Dynatrace (DT) and Axon Enterprise (AXON) as its top software picks for the year.

In a wide-ranging report, Baird also said Five9 (FIVN) was its top choice among communications software companies, while Zoom (ZM) was highlighted as a long-term value play.

The firm also said it likes Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) over the long run as 2023 saw a lot of strength and a sizable jump in its valuation.

For the coming year, the bank outlined 10 questions that tech investors will need to ponder.

■ Can the IGV outperform again? The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) gained 59% last year, outpacing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite gains of 24% and 43%, respectively.

■ What about the election and the Fed? “The election is obviously anyone’s guess,” analysts William Power and Yanni Samoilis wrote in a note. They said Bandwidth (BAND), which enables political messaging, is one company that should benefit directly from the election. And while lower interest rates from the Fed should benefit higher growth and higher valuation names, much of that may be priced in, however.

■ What’s in store for generative AI? Baird did not offer anything specific about the disruptive technology, but said Snowflake and MongoDB are seen as the best positioned companies to benefit.

■ What’s up with cloud optimization? The impact from the continued slowdown in cloud spending could remain a headwind, and fourth quarter comments from Amazon (AMZN) will be a key focus.

■ Initial 2024 guidance concerns? Consensus 2024 estimates look most reasonable for Axon, Dynatrace and Fastly (FSLY) with potential initial modest risk to several others.

■ What of “show-me” stories? The analysts said that many companies, in the unified communications space — specifically Zoom, Twilio (TWLO), RingCentral (RING) and Docusign (DOCU) — are under the revenue improvement microscope.

■ M&A a catalyst? Five9 and Docusign were both subject to M&A rumors exiting 2023. The bank expects more activity in 2024.

■ Axon produced the strongest software growth in Baird’s coverage in 2023 with software revenue up an estimated 51% in 2023 to $556M. “We expect that to remain a key upside driver in 2024,” the analysts said.

■ What about Apple? The bank said last year’s near 50% return could be tough to repeat this year. However, that mindset leaves them “more aggressive on weakness,” though its consumer staple characteristics, solid services growth and new product potential, including Vision Pro, are keeping the bank positive over the long term.

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