Month: May 2025

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Man Group plc lifted its holdings in MongoDB, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDB – Free Report) by 94.7% during the 4th quarter, according to the company in its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The institutional investor owned 66,645 shares of the company’s stock after buying an additional 32,411 shares during the period. Man Group plc owned approximately 0.09% of MongoDB worth $15,516,000 as of its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Other institutional investors and hedge funds have also recently modified their holdings of the company. Strategic Investment Solutions Inc. IL acquired a new stake in MongoDB during the 4th quarter worth approximately $29,000. NCP Inc. purchased a new position in MongoDB in the 4th quarter valued at about $35,000. Coppell Advisory Solutions LLC grew its stake in MongoDB by 364.0% in the 4th quarter. Coppell Advisory Solutions LLC now owns 232 shares of the company’s stock worth $54,000 after acquiring an additional 182 shares during the period. Smartleaf Asset Management LLC grew its position in shares of MongoDB by 56.8% in the fourth quarter. Smartleaf Asset Management LLC now owns 370 shares of the company’s stock valued at $87,000 after purchasing an additional 134 shares during the period. Finally, Manchester Capital Management LLC lifted its holdings in shares of MongoDB by 57.4% during the 4th quarter. Manchester Capital Management LLC now owns 384 shares of the company’s stock worth $89,000 after acquiring an additional 140 shares during the period. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 89.29% of the company’s stock.

Wall Street Analyst Weigh In

Several research analysts have recently weighed in on MDB shares. Redburn Atlantic upgraded shares of MongoDB from a “sell” rating to a “neutral” rating and set a $170.00 target price for the company in a research note on Thursday, April 17th. KeyCorp downgraded shares of MongoDB from a “strong-buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Wednesday, March 5th. Wells Fargo & Company downgraded MongoDB from an “overweight” rating to an “equal weight” rating and dropped their price objective for the stock from $365.00 to $225.00 in a research note on Thursday, March 6th. The Goldman Sachs Group lowered their price objective on shares of MongoDB from $390.00 to $335.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a research report on Thursday, March 6th. Finally, Piper Sandler dropped their target price on MongoDB from $280.00 to $200.00 and set an “overweight” rating on the stock in a research report on Wednesday, April 23rd. Nine analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating, twenty-three have given a buy rating and one has issued a strong buy rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat, the stock has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $288.91.

Read Our Latest Research Report on MongoDB

MongoDB Stock Down 0.0%

MDB stock traded down $0.07 during midday trading on Tuesday, reaching $188.94. The stock had a trading volume of 2,498,131 shares, compared to its average volume of 1,921,115. The business has a fifty day simple moving average of $174.77 and a two-hundred day simple moving average of $238.15. MongoDB, Inc. has a twelve month low of $140.78 and a twelve month high of $379.06. The firm has a market cap of $15.34 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of -68.96 and a beta of 1.49.

MongoDB (NASDAQ:MDB – Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Wednesday, March 5th. The company reported $0.19 EPS for the quarter, missing analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.64 by ($0.45). MongoDB had a negative net margin of 10.46% and a negative return on equity of 12.22%. The company had revenue of $548.40 million during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $519.65 million. During the same period last year, the firm earned $0.86 EPS. On average, equities analysts predict that MongoDB, Inc. will post -1.78 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

Insider Buying and Selling at MongoDB

In other news, CEO Dev Ittycheria sold 8,335 shares of MongoDB stock in a transaction on Wednesday, February 26th. The stock was sold at an average price of $267.48, for a total transaction of $2,229,445.80. Following the transaction, the chief executive officer now owns 217,294 shares in the company, valued at $58,121,799.12. The trade was a 3.69% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available at this hyperlink. Also, CAO Thomas Bull sold 301 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction on Wednesday, April 2nd. The stock was sold at an average price of $173.25, for a total transaction of $52,148.25. Following the transaction, the chief accounting officer now owns 14,598 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $2,529,103.50. The trade was a 2.02% decrease in their position. The disclosure for this sale can be found here. Over the last 90 days, insiders sold 33,538 shares of company stock worth $6,889,905. 3.60% of the stock is currently owned by insiders.

About MongoDB

(Free Report)

MongoDB, Inc, together with its subsidiaries, provides general purpose database platform worldwide. The company provides MongoDB Atlas, a hosted multi-cloud database-as-a-service solution; MongoDB Enterprise Advanced, a commercial database server for enterprise customers to run in the cloud, on-premises, or in a hybrid environment; and Community Server, a free-to-download version of its database, which includes the functionality that developers need to get started with MongoDB.

Read More

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Key Takeaways:

• Loop Capital downgrades MongoDB from Buy to Hold, highlighting integration concerns.
• Analyst consensus shows a significant potential upside for MongoDB shares.
• GuruFocus estimates a 132.81% upside based on its GF Value calculation.

In a recent shift, Loop Capital has adjusted its stance on MongoDB (MDB, Financial), downgrading the stock from Buy to Hold while cutting the price target significantly to $190 from its previous $350. Analyst Yun Kim points to slower-than-expected integration of AI technologies and challenges in the adoption of the Atlas platform as critical factors that may hinder substantial growth, particularly among large-scale enterprise clients.

Wall Street Analysts’ Insights

The broader analyst community maintains a positive outlook for MongoDB. According to the evaluations provided by 34 analysts over the next year, the average target price for MongoDB Inc (MDB, Financial) stands at $273.14. This forecast includes a high estimate reaching $520.00 and a lower marker at $160.00. The average price target denotes a notable 44.99% upside from the current share price of $188.39. Further insights and detailed data can be accessed through the MongoDB Inc (MDB) Forecast page.

The overall sentiment among 37 brokerage firms aligns with an “Outperform” rating for MongoDB, reflected in an average brokerage recommendation score of 2.0 on a scale where 1 represents a Strong Buy and 5 indicates a Sell.

Exploring GuruFocus’ GF Value Estimate

Utilizing comprehensive evaluation metrics, GuruFocus estimates MongoDB’s GF Value at $438.57 in the next year, which signifies a potential upside of 132.81% from the current price point of $188.385. The GF Value is an insightful metric representing the fair trading value of the stock, calculated based on historical trading multiples, past business growth, and future business performance projections. Investors interested in a more detailed assessment can explore the data available on the MongoDB Inc (MDB, Financial) Summary page.

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00:00 Speaker A

Now time for some of today’s trending tickers. We’re watching Levi Strauss, Hewlett Packard, and Mongo DB. First up, Levi Strauss has agreed to sell Docker to brand management firm Authentic Brands Group for initial value of $311 million. The denim company said in October that it was exploring a potential sale of the Dockers brand, all part of its strategy to focus on its core Levi’s label and expand its direct to consumer business. The transaction is expected to close on or around July 31st for some of the property. Next, Hewlett Packard, getting an upgrade to outperform from in line at Evercore ISI. The analyst saying the risk reward is fairly attractive, specifically for investors who have some duration. The analyst highlighted four key scenarios for HPE when it comes to approval for the long awaited Juniper deal. The firm thinks their upside scenario is more likely, in which case the stock would be worth between 25 to 30 bucks a share. And even without approval for the Juniper deal, Evercore says the company has ways to improve profits. Finally, Mongo DB, cut to hold from buy at Loop Capital Markets. The firm saying the company’s cloud platform, Atlas, isn’t gaining traction as quickly as expected, which could lead to slower AI project growth on the platform. The analyst expects consumption growth to continue to decelerate until the company makes progress on its larger enterprise customers. As a result, the firm slashed its price target on shares to $190. That’s down significantly from the prior $350. You can scan the QR code below to track the best and worst performing stocks of the session with Yahoo Finance’s trending tickers page.

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The most oversold stocks in the consumer discretionary sector presents an opportunity to buy into undervalued companies. The RSI is a momentum indicator, which compares a stock’s strength on days when prices go up to its strength on days when prices go down. When compared to a stock’s price action, it can give traders a better sense of how a stock may perform in the short term. An asset is typically considered oversold when the RSI is below 30 , according to Benzinga Pro . Here’s the latest list of major oversold players in this sector, having an RSI near or below 30. Sweetgreen Inc (NYSE: SG ) On May 8, Sweetgreen reported first-quarter results and cut its FY25 sales guidance below estimates. “Sweetgreen’s first quarter results demonstrate the strength and adaptability of our operating model. In the face of a challenging industry landscape, we stayed true to our mission, driving innovation and elevating the guest experience,” said Jonathan Neman, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer. “We believe the strength of our brand, our deep focus on the customer, and commitment to delivering a meaningful value proposition positions Sweetgreen well to navigate the current environment.” The company’s stock fell around 16%

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Investing.com — Loop Capital downgraded MongoDB (NASDAQ:MDB) to Hold from Buy and slashed its price target to $190 from $350 in a note Tuesday.

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On May 20, 2025, RBC Capital analyst Rishi Jaluria reiterated his positive outlook on MongoDB (MDB, Financial). The analyst maintained an “Outperform” rating for the company, reflecting continued confidence in its market position and growth potential.

In addition to reaffirming the rating, RBC Capital kept the price target steady at $320.00 USD. This price target remains unchanged from the previous analysis, indicating consistent expectations for MongoDB’s stock performance in the near future.

MongoDB (MDB, Financial) continues to garner attention from analysts as a key player in the database management sector. The reaffirmed rating and price stability suggest a sustained belief in the company’s strategic initiatives and market opportunities.

Wall Street Analysts Forecast

Based on the one-year price targets offered by 34 analysts, the average target price for MongoDB Inc (MDB, Financial) is $273.14 with a high estimate of $520.00 and a low estimate of $160.00. The average target implies an
upside of 46.33%
from the current price of $186.66. More detailed estimate data can be found on the MongoDB Inc (MDB) Forecast page.

Based on the consensus recommendation from 37 brokerage firms, MongoDB Inc’s (MDB, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.0, indicating “Outperform” status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.

Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for MongoDB Inc (MDB, Financial) in one year is $438.57, suggesting a
upside
of 134.96% from the current price of $186.66. GF Value is GuruFocus’ estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business’ performance. More detailed data can be found on the MongoDB Inc (MDB) Summary page.

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Loop Capital downgraded MDB to “hold” from “buy”

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Investing.com — Loop Capital downgraded MongoDB (NASDAQ:MDB) to Hold from Buy and slashed its price target to $190 from $350 in a note Tuesday.

The firm highlighted concerns over slowing adoption of the company’s Atlas platform and delayed benefits from artificial intelligence (AI) workloads.

“Our most recent industry checks indicate that its highly strategic Atlas platform continues to show lackluster market adoption,” Loop Capital analysts wrote. “This decelerating trend could continue, which we believe could result in slower ramp of AI-related workloads on the Atlas platform.”

Loop warned that while AI hype continues to grow, MongoDB may not see a proportional benefit in the near term.

The firm noted that MongoDB’s target market for cloud database platforms remains “highly fragmented,” with organizations unlikely to standardize on a single vendor like MDB for all AI deployments.

“This scenario will likely result in a slower ramp of AI-related workloads running on the MDB platform vs. the pace of overall AI deployments,” the analysts said.

Additionally, industry contacts are said to have told Loop that large enterprises may be less inclined to consolidate their database platforms due to GenAI reducing development complexity.

“This could lead to organizations opting for low-cost alternatives, including open source platforms such as PostgreSQL,” explained the firm.

Despite heavy investment in targeting large enterprises, Loop sees limited progress.

“The need to consolidate and standardize on one platform within a large organization to generate more efficiency and lower maintenance cost is becoming less relevant,” the note said.

Loop did acknowledge MongoDB’s long-term strengths, including “a large, loyal community consisting of 7M+ developers,” but flagged short-term risks, including transition-related uncertainty as new CFO Mike Berry joins the company later this month.

While first-quarter estimates remain unchanged, Loop lowered its Atlas growth trajectory going forward due to persistent weakness in new workloads and a slower AI ramp.

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Transcript

Nash: We’re going to kick off this talk with vultures. We’re going to talk about predators a lot. In the early 1990s, or the late 1900s, a painkiller called diclofenac became available in a new and affordable generic form in India. Farmers quickly realized that this generic form of diclofenac was incredibly useful in treating pain and inflammation. It’s a widely used human drug, but they were using it in their livestock. This is a country where there’s lots of livestock, and in general, they’re not to be eaten. They are there to help out, to exist. It was adopted almost universally across India, which had at the time, approximately 500 million said livestock animals. What no one knew at the time was that even small residue amounts of diclofenac, when consumed by vultures, would cause kidney failure, killing the vulture in a matter of weeks. The crisis that followed was historic in its speed and its scope.

The three most common species of vultures disappeared from India. They all died in less than a decade. The region’s primary scavenger became carrion. It quickly became obvious that India was actually dependent on vultures to clean up livestock animals as they passed away. Cows, sheep, lots of other livestock. Without the infrastructure, which had previously been the vultures, to process these carcasses, the shock of the vulture collapse led to carcasses piling up all over India. A public health emergency followed, the depth of which researchers are really now just starting to fully disentangle.

This was the consequence that came out of that. This was not 500,000 people that died in India total, this was an extra 500,000 people that died, above the standard population death over the course of those 5 years, that was attributed by researchers to the disappearance of the vulture population. These other deaths came from other sources. Increased rates of disease, like rabies, and decreased water quality due to contamination from carcasses piling up in the local water supplies. This is a very fancy graphic of that.

In addition to the loss of life and death, the vulture crisis was costing India billions of dollars. The cleanup that the vultures had simply done in the past had to be accomplished with human crews, vehicles. Eventually, they had to develop expensive new facilities like rendering plants, which if you want to sleep at night, don’t Google animal rendering plants like I did. There were two researchers who primarily dug into this, Saudamini Das and her co-author N.M. Ishwar, and they estimated that each vulture, singular vulture in India, was providing between $3,000 and $4,000 of economic value. Probably more than that, but that’s what they could really tie to the factors that they were able to study.

This is one example of intertwined cultural, biological, and agricultural systems. Another one was the Great Hunger or the Potato Famine in Ireland, and also the Four Pests Campaign that led to the Great Chinese Famine in the middle of the 20th century. What’s really key to this is that vultures were an unexamined, unknown source of resilience within the agricultural landscape in India. We’re going to kick this off with that little story, and we’ll talk about some of the kinds of systems where you’re looking for resilience as well, day in and day out.

Background

I have a background in cognitive neuroscience. Then, I ran off and joined the internet and worked at all these places. In 2020, I started something called The VOID. The VOID is a large database of public incident reports. The goal of this when I first started it, and still to this day, was to make these incident reports available to anyone to raise awareness of how software failures impact our lives, and to increase understanding, and try to help us learn from those failures, and make the internet a more resilient and safe place. This is Honeycomb. Fred Hebert writes a lot of their incident reports.

My favorite part of this is where it says things are bad. You may be familiar with that phenomenon. There are over 10,000 public incident reports in the database at this point, from I think about 2008 up to present day, in a variety of formats. Big, long, comprehensive postmortems, but there’s also things like tweets, and media articles, and conference talks, and all those things. There’s a lot of metadata in The VOID. In the past, I’ve done a lot of analysis on that.

Why the Interest in Automation and AI?

I started to get very interested in what I could learn about automation. That’s what we’re really here to talk about. Much of my work prior in The VOID has been looking at quantitative data around things like duration and severity, trying to dispel some common beliefs and myths around things like MTTR. There’s a bunch of my previous work that had done that. There’s a lot of reasons why I started wanting to dig into automation and AI. Let’s start off with an example you might be familiar with. Anybody know what this is? Knight Capital? On August 1st, 2012, Knight Capital Group, a financial services company, released an update that ended up losing the company $460 million in 20 minutes, severely impacting the valuation in numerous other industries and companies.

By the next day, Knight Capital’s value had plummeted by 75%. Within a week, the company basically ceased to exist. It was an extinction event for that company. This is a quote from the Security Exchange Commission’s report on that Knight Capital event. I’m not going to go into a great detail of this, but I wanted to talk about this quote where they talk about being able to keep pace. John Allspaw has done a really great deep dive into this write-up. He wrote about our sharp contrast between our ability to create complex and valuable automation and our ability to reason about, influence, control, and understand it in even normal operating conditions. Forget about the time pressured emergency situations we often find ourselves in. I have some links and references at the end if you really want to dig into this. The SEC went into all the ways that they wanted to think that Knight Capital screwed up.

The biggest one being how an automated process could lead to something like this. Two caveats. I hate that write-up. Don’t go to that thinking that’s like some source of truth or anything. It was fascinating to watch a body like that have to dive into technical details and start to wrap their heads around something as complex as automation in financial services. That’s the first thing. Go read John’s blog post. The second thing is, I’m not anti-automation or necessarily AI. I’m just a smidge more pro people. Automation is not going away. It’s a necessary and generally beneficial thing for businesses, for all of us. What I’m here to challenge is our current mental models about automation and AI, which are founded in some not just outdated but originally misguided ideas.

What Is Automation?

Before we go down that road, we want to talk about what do we mean by this. Let’s try to have at least a shared definition, because it’s arguable that all software embodies some form of automation. It’s a computer doing something for you. That’s fine. I wanted to have a shared definition that I could use for the research that I did, based on what people assume automation does. Here’s the definition. Automation refers to the use of machines to perform tasks, often repetitive, in place of humans, with the aim of accelerating progress, enhancing accuracy, or reducing errors compared to manual human work. How many of you feel like that’s not bad? My goal is by the end, I’m going to convince you we’re all wrong. We’re all wrong, because I’ve wandered into this with that belief and assumption as well.

Functional Allocation and the Substitution Myth

Let’s get into the nerdy cognitive science and research stuff. The underlying and often unexamined assumptions about automation is the notion that computers and machines are better at some things and humans are better at others. Historically, this has been characterized as HABA-MABA, humans are better at. It used to be MABA-MABA, men are better at. We got that one figured out, supposedly. Also known as the Fitts List, based on the work of Paul Fitts. He was a psychologist and a researcher at The Ohio State University in the mid-1900s.

More recently, researchers who are starting to dig into this have described this as functional allocation by substitution, or the substitution myth. These were researchers such as Erik Hollnagel, Sidney Dekker, David Woods, trying to dig into the idea that we can just substitute machines for people. Research from other domains has recently really started to challenge this substitution myth and functional allocation. One of the primary ones comes from aviation and automated cockpits. That research, I’ll get into it here in a bit more, but really often found that automation, contrary to what we think and assume, contributes to incidents and accidents in unforeseen ways. It tends to impose unexpected and unforeseen burdens on the humans responsible for operating in those systems with automation.

We go back to the Fitts List right here. There’s fixed strengths and weaknesses that computers and humans have, and all we have to do is just give separate tasks. We’ll just budget this stuff out over here and this over here, and we’ll all just go off and do more stuff, and everything will be happy and great. Right? Not right? Not how it usually works? It’s certainly not always the experience of a lot of people who work in complex software systems. I mentioned a couple of researchers, Sidney Dekker and David Woods. This is from a paper that they wrote in 2002. I’m going to just step through a few of the things that they talked about having the consequences of this assumption built into your automated systems. As you’re thinking about this in your world, you could think about things like CI/CD deployment pipelines, or load balancing, or anything that automatically does those things for you.

The first one is this, that as designers, either us designing our own little bits of automation, or people who are putting automation into tools, tend to have the desired outcomes in mind, and only those outcomes in mind. They don’t really know necessarily or understand or think about the other consequences that could come out of the automation that they’re designing. The second one is, it doesn’t really have access to all of the real-world parameters that we have. This is something that you have probably already heard quite a lot about, about autonomous cars and other kinds of systems like that, that their model is their model that we give them, but it’s not entirely the real-world model. Of course, people are trying to work on developing much more real-world models, but we’re certainly not there yet. What happens is, without that larger broader context, it actually makes it harder for the humans who have to solve problems when they arise in those environments.

If you’ve ever not known what dashboard to look at when the shit’s hitting the fan, that’s a very simple way of thinking about this particular problem with our assumptions around how we build automation into systems. The third one is that automation just doesn’t take stuff away, automation adds in ways that we may not have thought of as designers of automation. It transforms people’s work and tasks, often forcing them to adapt in unexpected and novel ways. Digging through logs, I’d mentioned that before, but you have to start looking in other places, you don’t actually know what’s happening, and you don’t have any access to what that automated system is necessarily doing.

Then the last one is, it doesn’t really necessarily replace human weaknesses. What it can do actually is it creates new human weaknesses, or new pockets of problems. You’ll see this in the development of knowledge silos or pockets or silos of expertise. Some people have developed a certain degree of expertise with that system, but no one else has because they haven’t had experience with it. Amy the Kafka wizard is on vacation when things go sideways and nobody but Amy knows how to fix it, that’s because she’s the only one who’s actually developed that set of expertise with that automated system, and for everyone else it’s effectively a new weakness that they don’t have in the face of that system. That’s one piece of work done.

The Ironies of Automation

This next one is the ironies of automation. This was work done by a woman named Lisanne Bainbridge in the mid-80s, probably before Alanis Morissette wrote this song. Lisanne Bainbridge was a cognitive psychologist and a human factors researcher. A lot of her work was in the ’60s to ’80s. She obtained a doctorate for work on process controllers, but then went to work on things like mental load, cognitive complexity, and related topics. Her work was based primarily on direct observation of and interviews with experts, in this case pilots. She spoke to them. She watched them doing the work that they needed to do. This was as we were beginning to increasingly automate cockpits in aviation that pilots were then having to work with on a daily basis. She found this set of ironies of automation. In the paper that I referenced right there, it’s not like there’s a solid one to seven list or something. I’ve glommed them into four just to try to make things a little bit easier for us to get through here.

The first irony is that humans are the designers of automation, and yet their designs often have unanticipated negative consequences. I’ve already mentioned this, but she really saw how that worked for pilots working with automation in cockpits. Second, it’s monitoring turtles all the way down. I don’t know if any of you know Shitty Robots. She just has this whole project. It’s amazing. Human operators still have to make sure that the automation is doing what it’s supposed to be doing. Even if they don’t necessarily have access to exactly what it’s doing or why it’s doing that. The automation has supposedly been put in place because it can do the job better, but then you have to be certain that it’s doing that job better than you. The paradox of not knowing what to do or knowing what to look for, these systems are generally impenetrable to that real-time inspection of what it is they’re doing.

Then, the worst part of this is that when that automation does fail and the human who was supposed to be monitoring it does have to take over, they often lack the knowledge or the context to do so. This is the Amy the Kafka expert example, writ large. It’s due to the fact that proper knowledge of how a system works and then therefore how the automation within it works, requires frequent usage of and experience with that system. Now you’ve been put over here and the automation is over here, so how do you have experience with that system? When you have to come in and deal with that, you actually are at a disadvantage, given that.

This is the irony three that’s leading into the irony three. When it does fail, the scale and the expertise and the knowledge required for the tasks to deal with that is often much larger and much more complex than humans who have no experience with that stuff. They don’t really necessarily know what to do. This is one of my favorite all time. It was like the food cart for the airport. It was just going crazy. This one guy finally just rolled up and bulldozed his whatever cart thing into it. It creates new types of work and it often leaves humans left to cope with a situation that’s actually almost worse or more complex than the one that was supposed to have the automation in there to do that work for them in the first place. The last one, this is Homer. This is the power plant one. He’s like, it’s as big as a phone book, and he’s supposed to be reading the instructions.

A lot of times we’re told, don’t worry about that, but when things go wrong, just use the runbook. Runbooks, all of those things can’t cover all the possibilities of the things that the designers couldn’t imagine when they were designing the automation and writing the runbooks about it. As we all know, they’re often not updated regularly. Again, the human is supposed to monitor the monitoring or the automation and then fill in the gaps. We’ve taken them out of that situation and told, go do something else. To debug a system with automation in it, you need to know the system overall, but what the automation is doing and how it’s doing it. You can see how this whole thing starts to collapse on itself and become fundamentally more complex than anybody intended. This is the quote, my favorite Bainbridge quote, “The more advanced a control system is, the more crucial may be the contribution of the human operator”.

Research from The VOID (Thematic Analysis)

I thought to myself, I probably have some data on this stuff. I’ve got over 10,000 incident reports with lots of words in them. As I had mentioned in the past, I had done a lot of qualitative research from incident reports in The VOID. I’ve looked at reports on duration and severity and the relationships between all of those things. This time I decided to take a different tack. The work that I did on the data I could find in The VOID falls under a category of research called thematic analysis. This is something that’s very prevalent and common in especially social sciences and also in areas that just have a huge amount of unstructured data, also known as text. 10,000 something incident reports with people talking about what went wrong and what happened. This is the fancy pants diagram, but the idea is you read all of the data that you can, and then you’re going to code those data.

Then you’re going to look at the codes, go back, revisit that again. Does this fit? Does this not fit? You’re creating your own model right here. Then eventually you look at those again, and those start to cohere, hopefully coalesce into themes. You can think of codes almost as like tags for similar items of text, not necessarily just individual words, but conceptually similar things. Then, as you roll those up to themes, those capture hopefully a prominent aspect of the data in some way. This is something, like I said, that’s done a lot in sociology work, anthropology, but also not just social sciences, but large bodies of unstructured text. I did not use a large language model to help me do this. Irony, I know.

Here’s what I did have to deal with. Over 10,000 incident reports and me. I did this work. I did not have, I wish, a round of lots of folks to help me with this. I’ll explain why I didn’t use a large language model. I had to get through, how do I get 10,000 down to a number that I can manage to sift through myself? Also, not every report in there is going to talk about automation. I had to find the ones where when people write up a report, they actually talk about that. Some of that was easy to knock away. All of the ones that were like media articles, like, no, the Facebook went down.

Those were not necessarily included out of the gate. In the end, what I did was I did a search query through all of the data based on keywords that I solicited from experts in their field. Folks who have deep, dark experience with their systems going down involving automation. I was like, what keywords should I include to find things that might have had automation involved when things went sideways? This is how we ended up with things like automation, automated, obviously. Like load balancing, self-healing, retry storms, these kinds of things. There’s probably more. The idea was to get a sample of the population.

If any of you ever took your psychology or social sciences class, hopefully that will make some sense. We’re not going to look at everything, but we’re going to look at a subset of it, assuming that it’s a pretty good representation of the larger whole. We took this 10,000-plus set of incident reports, and that query set reduced it down to just shy of about 500. Then, the next thing I had to do was actually read all of those. The good news was I had actually read a lot of them, but then I had to go back and read them very carefully and start looking for this.

Here’s the biggest reason why I didn’t use a large language model or other automated forms of doing this, as it requires expertise with the subject matter to a degree that you could read something and be like, that was an automated process. This gave me a set to look at, but I still even whittled some of them out. There were things where tooling that automates stuff broke, but that wasn’t actually the cause of the incident. There were incident reports for like Chef’s automated something, something broke for Chef, and they’re like, this happened. If that makes sense, I had to whittle that down. You couldn’t just turn a large language model at this and expect it to have that level of expertise. Maybe they will get there.

Right now, I can tell you that it requires a human to look at and read all of these to start doing this coding. I did an initial pass, and then, I didn’t really know what I was looking for. I was just looking for incidents that looked like they had automation in them. This is the way this process works. You do this, you keep reading, you start to notice patterns, you start to notice things that share similar effects, or context, or what have you. The codes start to develop from there. As I started to get what looked like a set of codes of automation, which I’ll show you, I went back and re-read everything again. Was this right? Did I see that again? There was a lot of reading, re-reading, refining.

The only thing that I did not do in this process that I would love to be able to do at some point or go back and do again is from a purely academic perspective, if you were to try to go publish this in an academic journal, I would have had a set of other coders, other reviewers come through and look at and decide if those codes actually were what I said they were and they were showing up in the way that I said. I would have a score of interviewer reliability. For full transparency and for any academic nerds, I didn’t do that. I do hope to.

What did we find? These are the set of codes that came out of this work. Then, here’s a fun pro tip. If you were working in an environment where people demand quantitative numbers, you can take qualitative work like this and you can put a number on it. If you have to give somebody a number, this is the way you do that. This is the literal methodology for doing that. You go read a bunch of stuff, you set the codes to it and you say, 77% of those codes had to do with automation being a contributing factor in the incident. We’ll walk through these just a little bit more here. These don’t add up to 100. The reason they don’t add up to 100 is because multiple codes could be present in a given incident. This isn’t supposed to be a pie chart where one thing is only one piece of it. That’s actually going to become important shortly. The vast majority of the time, automation was a part of the problem and it took humans to solve it. Those are the first two pieces of that.

Automation in some way, shape, or form was one of the reasons why that incident happened, potentially, definitely usually more than one. There is no root cause. Then, humans had to come in most equally as often, three-fourths of the time, to try to resolve that situation. Here’s the other codes that came out of this. Automation, work on automation, development of automation, fixing automation, adding more automation, that’s an action item code. When automation came up as an action item in the incident report, that’s where that came from. Detection. I have problems with my own self with this one because I think automation being involved in detecting incidents is a lot higher.

The only way I could do that, if somebody said, our automated monitoring system picked up an issue, and if you don’t tell me that, then I don’t know. I honestly suspect that we detect a lot of incidents because of automation. I think that number is maybe not the most reflective, but I think it’s also just the nature of the way people write incident reports. They’re three or four degrees removed, a public incident report, from what actually happened. A lot is assumed and a lot is not said. The other two places, the other two codes for automation in software incidents in The VOID was that it was actually part of the solution or maybe even it was the solution. It’s very small where automation detected the problem, automation had caused the problem, and automation solved it. It’s like very small. I think there were two. They were really happy about that, the folks that found those.

Then, the last one is when automation would hinder the remediation. How many of you have had this experience? Yes, this one’s fun. I call this one the gremlin. They all have their own little names and personas. This is the set of the ways in which automation might be involved. These were the codes and the quantitative summation of those codes. This is the one. It’s Dave and HAL. It’s hidden behind the text. If you remember one thing, it’s this, 75% of the time, you all still have to come in and fix something when automation makes it a lot harder.

Automation Themes

These are the themes then that came out of all of that. The first one, and this was what I was trying to get at in that slide where the numbers don’t add up to 100, is that automation can and often does play multiple roles in software incidents. It’s not nearly as clear cut as we want to imagine it as when we design it and the things that it will do.

Then when it doesn’t work as designed or intended, it often is part of the problem, requires humans, and it frequently becomes a contributing factor without the ability to resolve those independently. That’s the first big theme. The second one is that automation can unexpectedly make things worse. Not only does it contribute to, but it behaves in ways that make incidents worse. This can take the form of things like retry storms, interference with access to automated logs or data, unexpected interactions with other components that then expand the surface area of the incident. It could mean you can’t get into your database building. Facebook, that was a fun one. It can really show up in incredibly unexpected ways and ways that then require a lot more work and effort to try to figure out while you’re in the midst of trying to resolve an incident.

Then, this was the biggest one. Humans are still essential in automated systems. We still have to be there, not just to do the work that we do day-to-day to make those systems work, but to help solve problems and figure out what to do when the thing that was supposed to do our work stops being able to do that work for us.

Better Automation Through Joint Cognitive Systems

That’s really not very optimistic and fun, you say, and I know. I like to believe that there is hope. Despite all of these challenges and the ways that I’ve brought up that automation can be a total pain in our butts, it’s not going away. There are ways that we have found it to be beneficial. As I said, I’m not anti-automation. I’m really just more pro people. What can you all do? What can developers, DevOps folks, site reliability engineers, but especially people who are building and designing automation and AI tooling, what can you do? I’m advocating for a paradigm shift, an adjustment to our mental models, as I said at the beginning. Instead of designing and perceiving automation and AI as replacements for things that humans aren’t as good at, we should view it as a means to augment and support and improve human work. The goal is to transform automation from an unreliable adversary, a bad coworker into a collaborative team player. The fancy pants academic research term for that is joint cognitive systems. Let’s talk a little bit more about that.

I’m going to talk through this just really briefly. As I’ve mentioned, automation often ends up being a bad team player, because we’ve fallen prey to these Fitts style conceptualizations of automation. Failing to realize that it adds to system complexity and coupling and all these other things, while transforming the work we have to do and forcing us to adapt our skills and routines. David Woods and some of his colleagues have proposed an alternate approach or an alternate set of capabilities and ways of thinking about working with machines, this is their un-Fitts List. It emphasizes how the competencies of humans and machines can be enhanced through intentional forms of mutual interaction. Instead of, you’re better at this and I’m better at that, and we’re going to just go do these things separate from each other, we’re going to enhance the things that we do intentionally and thinking about that as mutual interaction, joint cognitive systems.

I think that the biggest one that I just really want to point out about this, and then I talked a little bit about this at the beginning, is the bottom one really. Machines aren’t aware of the fact that the model of the world is itself their model. It’s all this fancy stuff around ontology but in the way that machines model the world that we give them and the way that we model the world that we exist in with them. Starting to rethink what that looks like versus you go do this and I’ll go do that, and other things. That’s the machine side on the left and the people side on the right. We have all these other abilities and skills that we’re not limited in in the way that machines are constrained. We have high context, a lot of knowledge and attention driven tasks that we do. We’re incredibly adaptable to change, and typically because we have so much context expertise, we can recognize an anomaly in those systems really easily. We have this different ontological view of the system than machines do.

Text stuff number two. The paper is called, 10 Challenges for Making Automation a Team Player in Joint Human-Agent Activity. This stuff was written a little while ago but the words agents still work in this context if you think of them as machines, computers, automation, what have you. They make an argument, a case for what characteristics you need to have a joint cognitive system that supports this work that we do with machines. They provide 10 challenges. I always get asked, what are the most important of these that I think we should focus on? Here they are. To be an effective team player, intelligent agents must be able to adequately model the other participants’ intentions and actions vis-a-vis the joint activity state, vis-a-vis what you’re trying to do, aka establishing common ground.

If you think about the way you work with team members, let’s say in an incident or in trying to figure out some complex design of a system or something like that, you have to make sure that you understand each other’s intentions, that you have common ground of what it is you’re trying to do and how you think you should get there. This is a really important part about how joint cognitive systems, whether it’s your brain and my brain or my brain and a computer brain actually successfully work together, not how they necessarily currently work together.

The second one is that us and our agent friends, our computers, our automated systems must be mutually predictable. How many of you feel like your automated systems are mutually predictable? The last one is that agents must be directable. When we have goal negotiation, which is further down here, number seven, if we’re going to have goal negotiation, then one of the other of us has to be able to say, “I’m going to do that, you do that”. That’s not usually the case with our automated systems. Not currently. It’s the capacity to deliberately assess and modify your actions in a joint activity.

Conclusion

This is the set of references. I just want to conclude by begging people who are designing automated systems, who are working towards AI in especially developer tooling environments where the complexity is incredibly high, to really dive into this stuff. Take this work seriously. This is research that has changed the way that healthcare systems work, that nuclear power plants work, that airplane cockpits that we fly in every day work. That is my challenge to you and my hope that we can rethink the way that we work with automated and artificial intelligence systems that is mutually beneficial and helps make the work we do better.

Questions and Answers

Participant 1: Have you seen any examples in all of the incidents that you’ve looked at of companies adapting in the way that you’ve recommended they adapt?

Nash: I would argue almost exclusively no. Not that they’re not adapting, because we know that adaptive capacity in these systems is what we do and how we manage these things, but because they don’t write about it. It’s a really important distinction. I started this talk off with an example from an incident report from Honeycomb, because I consider that, and the work that Fred Hebert does, analyzing and writing up their incidents to be almost exclusively the gold standard high bar of doing that. There are organizations that do adapt and learn, and they don’t talk about it in their incident reports. They talk about the action items and the things that they do. Honeycomb, a few others, talk about the adaptations. They talk about what they learn, both about their technical systems and their sociotechnical systems. The short answer is no. I wish people would write about that more, because if I could study that, I would be a really happy camper.

Participant 2: I work in building automated tools, and I have colleagues who work in building automated tools. The thing that really makes me just slam my forehead down on my desk every so often is the one where we have an outage or an incident because an automated tool presented a change nominally to the humans who were going to review the change, and the human went, the tool knows what it’s doing, and they rubber stamp it. It looks ok, but they’ve lost the expertise to actually understand the impact of that particular config change or whatever it was. There doesn’t seem to be a common pattern of saying, other people wrote this tool. They are just software developers like you, and this thing might have bugs. This is before you put AI in it.

Nash: Yes, not even bugs, you may not know the extent of what it does, and you don’t know all the conditions it’s exposed to.

Participant 2: Correct. Given that, in terms of this compact idea, like giant flashing lights saying, don’t trust me, I’m trying to help you, but I could be wrong, would be great. How does that actually happen from what you’ve seen?

Nash: The other question I commonly get is, what examples have you seen of this? The answer is none, because no one’s tried to really do this yet, that I know of. I don’t know what that is, because it’s generally very context-specific. The goal would be for the tool, the automation, to tell you, this is about to happen, and here’s the set of things that I expect to happen when that happens, or here’s what we’re expecting to see. That’s part of the being mutually predictable and then being directable. Yes, do that, don’t do that, some of that. I think, giant warning lights, I might be wrong, but I’m trying to help you. That’s also what our colleagues are like. It’s being able to introspect what it is that the tool is trying to do. No, I don’t just mean documentation. I mean the way that we interact with that thing.

The other thing I do want to bring up is something you mentioned, which is another term in the industry that comes up a lot in autonomous driving situations is automation complacency. I didn’t talk about that in here, it wasn’t in this set of research that I brought to this talk. It is also this notion that as we say, “Automation will just do this stuff for you”, then you’re like, “I’m going to not worry about that anymore”. It’s not just the lack of expertise with the system, it’s like, no, I trust that to do that, you become complacent. This is how accidents happen in a self-driving car situation, but it’s also a phenomenon within these systems as well, and like, “Yes. No, don’t worry about that red light, that one comes on all the time”. It’s in that same sphere of influence.

The biggest thing I would ask for people designing these is, when some form of automation is going to do something that it could give you as much possible information about what it’s going to do and what the consequences of that might be, and then you get to have some thought about and input into what that would look like.

Participant 3: I am working in the AI agent space, so I am dealing with this stuff every day. I think among the pillars of the joint collaboration that you listed, don’t you think that the mutual predictability is somehow the most problematic one because actually it has to do with the tooling test in some sense? You are assuming basically that you are predictable for the machine and the machine is predictable for you. It’s a loop. You know that there are some advanced LLMs which started to fake it in some extent in order to escape from your expectations. That’s something which is about a mutual trust. I see it personally as a problematic point.

Nash: It is. Some of these aren’t as separable. You can’t just be like, I’ll do this one thing. If you’re mutually predictable, if something’s not predictable enough, you have to be able to engage in goal negotiation. Then other things here, like observe and interpret signals of status and intentions. When the predictability isn’t there, what other avenues do you have to try to understand what’s going to happen? The goal is to be mutually predictable, but even we’re not all mutually predictable with each other.

Participant 3: Also, maybe engaging in a goal negotiation is not enough. Maybe you should be able to assess the results of the goal negotiation to say, ok, we understood the same thing. That’s really challenging.

Participant 4: A lot of this puts in mind something many of you have possibly seen before. It’s an IBM presentation slide from about half a century ago, which reads, a computer must never make a management decision because a computer can never be held accountable. Or as a friend of mine framed it to me, a computer must never fuck around because a computer can never find out.

Nash: Accurate.

Participant 4: It seems to me, someone I’ll admit as being a little bit of an AI pessimist or whatever, that there are a lot of cases where that lack of accountability is really more of a feature than it is a bug. Even less of a pessimistic framing, there’s a lot of instances of like AI boosterism where a complete lack of human involvement being necessary is touted as a goal rather than something concerning about it. Do you have any insights or input on how we can apply this framework or paradigm shift you’re talking about in cases where bringing up those sorts of concerns are very much not wanted?

Nash: Get venture capitalism out of tech? All I have are spicy takes on this one. Like late-stage capitalism is a hell of a drug. As long as our priorities are profit over people, we will always optimize towards what you’re discussing. The goal is to fight back in that locally as much as we can and where we can, which is why especially I make the appeal not so much to people who are trying to make broad-based cultural AI things, but people who are building tooling for developers in this space who then build things that impact our world so heavily to care about this stuff. Capitalism’s hard, but hopefully locally folks could care about this a bit more and improve the experience for us.

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