Month: March 2025

Top Wall Street analysts changed their outlook on these top names. For a complete view of all analyst rating changes, including upgrades, downgrades and initiations, please see our analyst ratings page.

• Jones Trading analyst Soumit Roy downgraded the rating for Chimerix, Inc. CMRX from Buy to Hold and announced a price target of $8.55. Chimerix shares closed at $8.46 on Wednesday. See how other analysts view this stock.
• JP Morgan analyst Ken Goldman downgraded The Campbell’s Company CPB from Overweight to Neutral and lowered the price target from $48 to $37. Campbell`s shares closed at $39.18 on Wednesday. See how other analysts view this stock.
• Wells Fargo analyst Andrew Nowinski downgraded the rating for MongoDB, Inc. MDB from Overweight to Equal-Weight and lowered the price target from $365 to $225. MongoDB shares closed at $264.13 on Wednesday. See how other analysts view this stock.

Considering buying MDB stock? Here’s what analysts think:

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Shares of MongoDB (MDB, Financial) experienced a significant drop, plunging 20.64% to a price of $209.61. This decline came after the company released its Q4 2024 earnings report and provided an unsatisfactory outlook for the fiscal year 2025. The sharp decrease in stock value reflects investor concerns regarding MongoDB’s future guidance and financial performance.

Despite positive aspects of the Q4 earnings report, where MongoDB (MDB, Financial) achieved revenues of $548.4 million and non-GAAP earnings of $1.28 per share, surpassing analysts’ expectations, the overall outlook painted a less optimistic picture. For the fiscal year 2024, revenue growth was marked at 19%, although the gross profit margin in Q4 dropped to 73%. Notably, the company reported a GAAP loss of $0.20 per share, improving from a previous loss of $0.77 per share in the earlier quarter.

A primary concern for investors was the significant reduction in free cash flow, which declined by over half to $22.9 million in Q4. The annual free cash flow totaled $114.5 million, up modestly by 4% from the previous fiscal year’s $109.9 million. This modest increase failed to alleviate investor concerns over future cash flow sustainability.

Regarding the 2025 forecast, MongoDB’s guidance was less promising. The company’s prediction of Q1 sales at $526 million and non-GAAP earnings of $0.63 per share was in line with expectations; however, the anticipated full-year sales of up to $2.3 billion and a projected earnings decline to between $2.44 and $2.62 per share raised alarms. This represents a significant expected drop from the $3.66 earnings per share last year.

The valuation of MongoDB (MDB, Financial) stock, when analyzed through the lens of GF Value, suggests that the stock may be significantly undervalued. Currently, the GF Value stands at $438.12, indicating potential upside for the stock. For more details on the GF Value, investors can refer here.

In terms of financial metrics, MongoDB (MDB, Financial) maintains a solid Altman Z-Score of 7.13, reflecting strong financial health. The company’s Price-to-Book (PB) Ratio is close to its 5-year low, and its Price-to-Sales (PS) Ratio is near a 2-year low, suggesting potential value to contrarian investors. The operational margin is expanding, which is typically a positive signal for profitability.

However, challenges persist as revenue growth has shown signs of slowing, and insiders have been selling shares. These factors, coupled with concerns about future earnings and cash flow, underline the need for cautious optimism among investors in MongoDB (MDB, Financial).

Shares of MongoDB Inc MDB tanked in early trading on Thursday, despite the company reporting upbeat fourth-quarter results.

The results came in amid a positive earnings season. Here are some key analyst takeaways.

Wedbush On MongoDB

Analyst Daniel Ives reiterated an Outperform, while cutting the price target from $360 to $300.

MongoDB’s total revenues grew 20% year-on-year to $548.4 million, beating Street expectations of $520.6 million, Ives said. Subscription revenue of $531.0 million also came in above consensus of $504.9 million, “as MDB looks to generate stable demand across industries for its next-gen solutions,” he added.

NRR (net recurring revenues) stood at 118%, decelerating from 120% in the previous quarter, “due to a smaller contribution from existing customers,” the analyst stated. “MongoDB provided relatively weak guidance across the board for FY26 as the company sees a more gradual impact from its AI solutions into FY26,” he further wrote.

RBC Capital Markets On MongoDB

Analyst Rishi Jaluria maintained an Outperform rating, while slashing the price target from $400 to $320.

MongoDB closed fiscal 2025 “on a solid note,” with non-GAAP earnings of $1.28 per share beating consensus of 66 cents per share, Jaluria said. Although total revenues came in higher than consensus, growth decelerated by 2 points to 20% year-on-year, he added.

The company achieved strong profitability, with operating margins beating consensus by around 900 basis points, the analyst stated. Management’s fiscal 2026 guidance was disappointing, being impacted by expectations of “a high single-digit decline in non-Atlas subscription revenue,” he further wrote.

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

Rosenblatt Securities On MongoDB

Analyst Blair Abernethy reaffirmed a Buy rating, while reducing the price target from $350 to $305.

MongoDB’s subscription revenues grew by 19% year-on-year to $531 million, beating consensus by 6%, Abernethy said. The beat was driven by “greater than expected non-Atlas multi-year contract signings of ~$10m,” he added.

While the company expects Atlas consumption growth to remain stable in fiscal 2026, its weaker revenue guidance for the year is impacted “largely by a $50m non-Atlas multi-year license headwind,” the analyst stated. “Mongo continues to see a significant longer-term AI opportunity for its highly scalable, flexible document model that handles all data types,” he further wrote.

Needham On MongoDB

Analyst Mike Cikos maintained a Buy rating, while slashing the price target from $415 to $270.

MongoDB guided to revenue growth of 16%-17% in the fiscal first quarter to a range of $524.0 million to $529.0 million and 12%-14% growth in fiscal 2026 to $2.240 billion to $2.280 billion, Cikos said. The full-year revenue guidance came well below Street expectations of $2.328 billion, he added.

The company expects non-Atlas subscription revenue to decline by a high-single-digit percentage, the analyst wrote. “All eyes are set squarely on Atlas (71% of Revenue) to drive revenue outperformance,” with consumption growth stabilizing and the company poised to benefit from “a stronger cohort of acquired workloads in FY25 versus FY24,” he further wrote.

Piper Sandler On MongoDB

Analyst Brent Bracelin maintained an Overweight rating, while cutting the price target from $425 to $280.

MongoDB total revenues grew 19.7% year-on-year to $548 million, “with Atlas upside contributing to a $31M beat to the midpoint guide,” Bracelin said. Atlas grew by a healthy 24% year-on-year during the fiscal fourth quarter, although this marked a deceleration from the 26% reported in the previous quarter, he added.

Management indicated that Atlas consumption trends are stabilizing, the analyst stated. Bracelin said, however, that the company’s growth outlook came in below 14% for second straight year.

MDB Price Action: Shares of MongoDB had declined by 21.61% to $207.06 at the time of publication on Thursday.

Read More:   Goldman Sachs Cuts Earnings Growth Outlook, Sees Investors Move From ‘Excitement’ To ‘Boredom’

Photo: Shutterstock

MongoDB (MDB -22.73%) stock got destroyed Thursday morning, falling 20.3% through 10:20 a.m. ET despite “beating” on Q4 2024 earnings last night, after warning 2025 results may look a lot worse.

And I hate to say I told you so, but I did.

Heading into the quarter, analysts forecast MongoDB would earn $0.67 per share, non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles), on sales of $519.8 million. MongoDB beat both numbers, with sales of $548.4 million, and earnings nearly double what Wall Street predicted: $1.28 per share.

MongoDB Q4 earnings

So Q4 news was far from horrible. Q4 revenue increased 20% year over year, and full-year revenue grew 19%. Still, the gross profit margin declined to 73% in Q4, and while the company claimed a non-GAAP profit, its earnings as calculated according to GAAP were -$0.20 per share. That improved from the $0.77 lost in last year’s Q2, but it was still a loss.

What concerns me most is that free cash flow fell by more than half to just $22.9 million in Q4. For the full year, the company still generated $114.5 million, which was more than the $109.9 million generated in fiscal 2024. The growth rate in FCF production, however, was nothing to brag about — a meager 4%.

Is MongoDB stock a sell?

And yet, none of the above seems to be what investors are focusing most on today. As I warned last month, heading into Q4 2024 earnings, all eyes would actually be on MongoDB’s guidance for 2025 — and this is where the company really fell short.

Breaking it to you gently, MongoDB guided in line with expectations for Q1, with sales of $526 million, and non-GAAP earnings of $0.63 per share or better. For the full year, however, MongoDB said sales won’t exceed $2.3 billion, and earnings could be a full third less than last year’s $3.66 per share, ranging from $2.44 to $2.62.

That’s the real reason MongoDB stock is down today: Its earnings are about to shift into reverse.